COS 307-1 - Global spatial distribution of Chromolaena odorata habitat under climate change: random forest modeling of one of the 100 worst invasive alien species

Thursday, August 10, 2023

3:30 PM – 3:45 PM PDT

Location: B117

Presenting Author(s)

PRADEEP ADHIKARI

Researcher
Hankyong National University
Anseong, Kyonggi-do, Republic of Korea

Coauthor(s)

YL

Yong Ho Lee

Researcher
Hankyong National University, Republic of Korea
SH

Sun Hee Hong

Professor
Hankyong National University, Republic of Korea
JY

JI YEON YUN

Student
Hankyong National University, Republic of Korea
SC

SUE HYUEN CHOI

Student
Hankyong National University, Republic of Korea
GK

GA EUN KIM

Student
Hankyong National University, Republic of Korea

Abstract: Background/Question/Methods

Chromolaena odorata is listed as one of the world’s worst invasive weed native to Central and South America. C. odorata can pose a threat to native biodiversity, weaken natural habitats and agriculture systems, disrupt the structure and function of ecosystems, and causes significant economic losses. Due to global climate change and anthropogenic activities, suitable habitats for C. odorata are likely to expand, increasing its invasion risk around the world. Therefore, this study was designed to predict global spatial distribution and changes in suitable habitats of C. odorata under the current and future climate change scenarios shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs; SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) using random forest (RF) modeling approach.

Results/Conclusions

The current spatial distribution of C. odorata covers 789,244.7 km². By 2061-2080, the distribution of suitable habitat is predicted to expand by 46.30%, be lost by 12.20%, and 87.80% of suitable habitat will remain unchanged. Currently, C. odorata is mostly located in South America, with only minor distribution on other continents. However, our results show that future climate change will increase the invasion risk of C. odorata worldwide, particularly in Oceania, Africa, and Australia. Many nations, such as Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and Lesotho, currently have unsuitable habitats, but with climate change, such countries are predicted to have highly suitable habitats, supporting the notion that climate change will favor global habitat expansion for C. odorata. Our study identified areas that may become suitable habitats under current and future climate change, which will be useful in developing long-term management strategies for C. odorata. Immediate control and management measures are needed in high-risk countries, and preventive measures, such as solid quarantine systems, should be established in countries with a potential threat of invasion.

Acknowledgement

This study was supported by the Ministry of Environment, Republic of Korea (grant number 2018002270001).