COS 96-6 - CANCELLED - Linking traits, species interactions, and ecosystem function to map the effect of seed dispersal disruption on the carbon accumulation potential of tropical forest regrowth

Abstract: The majority of tropical forest aboveground carbon is contained in plant species that rely on animals for seed dispersal. Loss of animal biodiversity and restrictions to animal movement may thus limit the regrowth potential of deforested or degraded tropical areas. To estimate the effect of seed dispersal disruption on aboveground carbon accumulation in tropical forests, we used data from ecological databases and thousands of field studies to 1) predict seed dispersal interactions and seed dispersal function on the basis of species traits for all birds and mammals using machine learning, 2) model the effect of anthropogenic land use on seed disperser movement and occurrence, and finally 3) relate the resulting estimates of seed dispersal function to differences in forest regrowth over time at thousands of tropical sites. We found that sites with less seed dispersal disruption accumulated more carbon more quickly than did areas of heavy seed dispersal disruption. Differences in seed dispersal function explained four-fold variation in carbon accumulation rates between sites. We mapped estimates of the carbon accumulation potential of natural forest regrowth and the potential for restoration of seed dispersal function to act as a natural climate solution by amplifying carbon storage during natural forest regrowth. Overall, the analysis highlights a strong relationship between animal biodiversity and carbon storage in tropical forests.