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Contributed Talk

Session: : Ecosystem Stability And Resilience 2

COS 195-3 - Predicting temporal stability from its resistance and resilience components

Wednesday, August 9, 2023
2:00 PM – 2:15 PM PDT
Location: D139
Abstract: Temporal stability can be a desirable property for ecosystems, the climate, agriculture, economics, and other dynamical systems. Intuitively, temporal stability (low coefficient of variation) could be enhanced by reducing displacement during perturbations (resistance), accelerating recovery after perturbations (resilience), or both. Here we show how temporal stability can be predicted from its resistance and resilience components. We test new theoretical predictions using data from the world’s longest running biodiversity experiment. Specifically, we test whether long-term ecosystem stability, the temporal stability of plant productivity observed over a quarter century, can be predicted from short-term estimates of the resistance and resilience of productivity to an extreme climate event. We also test whether resistance to a drought that occurred in 2021 could be forecasted from ecosystem stability observed from 1996 to 2020.

We find both mathematically and empirically that temporal stability can often be predicted from resistance, without needing to know how quickly the system recovers. Long-term ecosystem stability can be predicted with moderate accuracy from short-term estimates of resistance alone or, with slight improvement, a combination of resistance and resilience. Furthermore, drought resistance can be forecasted, prior to the drought, by monitoring productivity. Our results suggest that temporal stability and resistance may be predicted from one another when periods of recovery are brief, such as due to frequent perturbations, rapid recovery, or both.