COS 285-6 - Biodiversity exposure to projected climate change may compromise future marine protected area resilience under business-as-usual scenario

Abstract: Climate change poses significant threats to marine organisms and their habitats, disrupting their physiological and behavioral processes through rising ocean temperatures and changing ocean chemistry. Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are a crucial tool for protecting marine species and habitats by regulating and restricting human activities. However, climate change impacts are often overlooked during the design and implementation of MPAs, leading to questions about their long-term effectiveness in ensuring the sustainability of marine ecosystems.

To address this issue, we conducted an evaluation of the resilience of European MPAs and species targeted by fisheries to climate change. We assessed their exposure to novel climates using climate dissimilarity based on four environmental variables - temperature, oxygen, pH, and primary productivity - coupled with projections of species distributions from present-day conditions to the end of the 21st century under contrasting Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios - SSP1-1.9 and SSP5-8.5.

Our findings revealed that 6% of the species in European MPAs will be exposed to novel climates under SSP1-1.9, while 76% will be exposed under a business-as-usual scenario (SSP5-8.5). Species from MPAs in enclosed and semi-enclosed basins like the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea seem to be exposed to the highest degree of novel climatic conditions.

Incorporating future climate change projections into management plans is essential to ensure the long-term sustainability of MPAs. Protection of possible climate refugia and meeting Paris Agreement goals is also crucial for boosting MPA resilience and reaching international conservation targets, such as the post-2020 Convention on Biological Diversity framework, which aims to expand global MPA coverage to 30% by 2030. The results of our study can be used to guide future MPA design and management practices, ensuring the continued protection of marine species and habitats in the face of climate change.