COS 307-2 - Real-time mapping of phenology and establishment risk for emerald ash borer

Abstract: An improved understanding of when developmental stages of invasive species are expected to occur and where they could potentially establish have the potential to support early detection and management efforts. We developed and evaluated the predictive performance of a spatialized model that predicts the phenology and risk of establishment (based on climate suitability) for emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis, for use in the DDRP (Degree-Days, Risk, and Pest event maps) platform. The DDRP platform is presently being used to produce regularly updated (every 2-3 days) forecasts for 16 invasive insect species including EAB in the contiguous United States, available at https://uspest.org/caps.



We capitalized on a large body of published literature and hundreds of field observations for EAB from across its worldwide range (Asia, Europe, and North America) to update the DDRP model and evaluate its performance. Predictions of establishment risk were highly accurate, with presence predicted at >99% of observation locations. Phenology model validation analyses revealed good predictive performance for adults, with a mean absolute error of ca. 7 days for adult emergence and peak activity. Evidence for robust model performance suggests that forecasts may be useful for tactical and strategic decision support for this highly destructive forest pest.



We conclude by discussing our efforts to deliver and communicate model forecasts of EAB adult emergence and egg hatch in a range of user-friendly, readily accessible formats at the USA National Phenology Network’s website (https://www.usanpn.org/data/forecasts) and to solicit phenological observations to conduct additional forecast validations. Additionally, we discuss our efforts to extend DDRP’s capacity to model a wider range of agricultural biosecurity threats including weeds and plant pathogens and to build new models for high-priority pests including cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula).