COS 68-4 - CANCELLED - A transdisciplinary approach to growing convergence for sustainable lights at night

Abstract: The intensity and distribution of artificial lights at night (ALAN) is growing even more rapidly than previously realized. Nearly half of the United States’ human population and most of the world’s population live in urban areas that are photo polluted. This recent growth of ALAN and its consequences is a complex societal and conservation problem. To seek sustainable solutions to the ALAN problem, we employ a transdisciplinary convergence research approach combining ecological forecasting with community engagement and public policy. Specifically, can improved bird migration forecasts coupled with survey results on the public’s perceptions and attitudes on ALAN lead us to sustainable policy pathways?

One ecological consequence of ALAN is the disruption of bird migration, which contributes to widespread bird population declines. The growing subdiscipline of ecological forecasting holds great, though largely unproven, promise for contributing solutions for socio-environmental problems. We present new advances made in our ability to forecast migratory movements through the growth of biological and spatial covariates quantifying terrestrial and atmospheric conditions at local and macroscales. Specifically, we leveraged 10 years of terrestrial and atmospheric data (2012-2021) to develop a high-resolution (2.9 x 2.9 km) bird migration forecast model for the contiguous U.S. Increased information access through ecological forecasts (such as BirdCast) could be important in helping the interested public participate in beneficial campaigns such as "Lights Out" to reduce bird mortality from disorientation and collisions with human infrastructure.

However, forecasts alone will not build swift and lasting societal change. Integration of insights from social science and public policy theory provides a framework for quantifying the impact of forecasting on the broader public and guiding better communication of research products. To better understand this system, we employed a representative national survey with nearly 5,000 respondents to assess the public’s attitudes and perceptions of ALAN, ecological forecasts, migratory birds, and their intersectionality. Our results show that advocacy communities are eager to access and use improved forecasts and that the public values ALAN for safety reasons but are concerned about potential negative consequences of excess ALAN for themselves, birds, and ecosystems. These outcomes suggest the potential for an inclusive consensus-based process to influence community expectations with respect to ALAN.