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Latebreaking Poster

Session: Climate Change (Latebreaking)

LB 7-60 - CANCELLED - Carbon consequences of climate change, natural disturbances, management, and wood utilization across US Pacific Coast forests

Thursday, August 10, 2023
5:00 PM – 6:30 PM PDT
Location: ESA Exhibit Hall
Climate change presents a global challenge to society and the ecosystems we rely on. In turn, forests have become increasingly important in climate policy dialogues, as seen in the Paris Agreement, the COP26 Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land Use, and recent investments by Congress. There is also growing scientific recognition of forests’ importance as a natural climate solution, spurring new and innovative research to produce policy-relevant results. Governments therefore have a pressing need to demonstrate that a broad suite of forest practices is compatible with carbon sequestration goals, and to consider the economic benefits and tradeoffs of these practices. In addition, western US forests are dealing with increasing stresses from climate change (shifting precipitation, increasing heat) and increased natural disturbances (wildfire, insect outbreaks), which can all decrease sequestration rates and emit carbon. It’s essential to have robust accounting of both ecosystem and harvested wood carbon cycling as agencies grapple with climate policies. Here, we have modeled the effects of a broad range of natural disturbance impacts and forest management and wood utilization practices on carbon sequestration and storage across OR and CA. Our modeling process is co-produced through consultation with state agencies and forestry experts to incorporate management priorities, concerns, and goals. We developed business-as-usual and alternative management scenarios to project future carbon trends under various practices. Our scenarios use both a growth and yield-based forest ecosystem model (CBM-CFS3), a lifecycle harvested wood products model, and iii) substitution benefits from using wood products. This project fits well with the ESA 2023 theme of “for all ecologists”, as the team encompasses NGOs, agencies, and universities, and was co-created with agencies. Preliminary results show that climate-smart forestry practices could increase the state-level net forest carbon sink by 20-40% in the next two decades. In addition, we compiled a treatment database for each state going back to 2000. These treatments include resilience treatments such as prescribed burns and fuels reductions, and extractive management such as harvest. Our results show that CA has treated approximately 276,000 acres annually and OR has treated approximately 371,000 per year. These completed treatment numbers are some of the most robust estimates of treatments completed within these states, and will be useful as governments work towards increasing forest resilience treatments on the ground. These results will help state partners identify promising climate-smart practices to pursue effective state-wide climate action.