PS 6-80 - Dynamic models of co-circulating pathogens: A systematic review

Abstract: Although co-circulation of multiple pathogens is ubiquitous, most mathematical models of pathogen dynamics focus on only a single pathogen. To address the question of whether models should more commonly embrace the multiple-pathogen nature of real-world systems, we carried out a systematic review of models of co-circulating pathogens. Our objective was to understand why and how models of co-circulating pathogens model multi-pathogen dynamics jointly. Our systematic review of more than 300 papers made use of a questionnaire that assessed which pathogens have been modeled together, how they have been modeled, and why those studies involved multiple pathogens. We found that most studies have focused on a limited set of pathogen taxa and modeling approaches, with a disproportionate focus on prevalence changes over short time periods and less of a focus on indirect effects of new pathogens such as service interruptions and misdiagnosis. We suggest that broadening both the sets of co-circulating pathogen taxa modeled and focusing on more integrated approaches could represent an important dimension for future expansion of mathematical models of infectious diseases.