PS 34-219 - Future landscape management scenarios related ecosystem services trade-offs and synergies in Central Ethiopia

Abstract: This study aimed at modeling scenarios of the future land use and land cover (LULC) changes and estimating ecosystem services (ES) values by the year 2051 compared to 2021 in Central Ethiopia. The future LULC changes by the year 2051 were simulated for four scenarios, namely Business-as-Usual (BAU), Rapid Agricultural Expansion (RAE), Ecosystems protection and Agricultural Development (EPAD), and Landscape Ecosystems Restoration and Conservation (LERC). Four LULC change scenarios were simulated based on anticipated assumptions derived from existing spatial policies, consultation workshop reports on scenarios of agricultural development in Ethiopia, suitability analysis, population growth analysis, and expert knowledge of the study area characteristics. We used Multi-Layer Perceptron-Artificial Neuron Network (MLP-ANN) model to simulate BAU scenario and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to generate RAE, EPAD, and LERC scenarios and assess habitat quality in the study landscape. The benefit transfer method was used to estimate the total ES values and trade-offs analysis. The result shows LULC changes in the study area vary across simulated scenarios compared to the base year 2021. Under BAU and RAE scenarios cultivated land increased by 146548ha (22%) and 193965ha (29%), whereas forest, water body, wetland, and shrub-bush land reduced. However, forest cover increased by 31725ha and 100080ha but bare land reduced by 8466ha (21%) and 10379ha (25%) under EPAD and LERC scenarios. The forest cover annual rate of change is 3.2% and 6% under EPAD and LERC scenarios. As a result, the total ES value increased by US$ 24.5 and 78.5 million under EPAD and LERC scenarios. Whereas the total ES value was reduced under BAU and RAE scenarios by US$ 27.1 and 73.2 million by 2051. The trade-offs among ecosystem services significantly synergized and the habitat quality of the landscape also highly improved under LERC scenario. Therefore, EPAD and LERC could be used as a reference for sustainable landscape planning and management. Landscape ecosystems restoration integrated with a sustainable agricultural intensification approach enable to ensure the sustainability of both agricultural production and ecosystem services synergies without negatively affecting the natural environment.