PS 39-60 - Examining the effect of deforestation on biodiversity-carbon cobenefits in Paraguayan forests

Abstract: Paraguay is an immensely biodiverse country that lost a significant share of its forests in recent decades due to soy farming and cattle ranching. This project aims to understand the relationship between aboveground carbon stocks and trends in species' habitat amount for mammal species and bird species across time (1985-2020). To achieve this, we applied the Continuous Change Detection and Classification algorithm (CCDC) on Google Earth Engine (GEE) from 1985 to 2020 using the Landsat satellite, which generated harmonic coefficients (54 variables). Secondly, we developed Species Distribution Models for selected species using the CCDC coefficients as environmental variables. The species studied were selected considering four categories of the IUCN red list categories: Least Concern (LC), Near Threatened (NT), Vulnerable (VU), and Endangered (EN), and their relationship with forest cover (i.e., forest-dependent species versus forest-independent species). In addition, the species selected had the highest number of occurrences in their categories and >20 occurrences. Habitat declines occurred for 2 out of 3 mammal species during 1985-2020, Sturnira lilium showed the most significant decrease (45 % of reduction). Tolypeutes matacus which is associated with Savanna and Shrubland showed a slight increase in habitat (4%). Regarding bird species, 3 out of 7 showed habitat declines, and 4 species showed habitat increases. The species that showed the greatest decrease was Penelope superciliaris (15.40%) and the species that showed the greatest increase was Picumnus cirratus (40%) which is listed as Least Concern according to the IUCN. This study will be helpful as a baseline for land-use planning and reducing biodiversity loss because the effects of deforestation on biodiversity and the carbon co-benefits in Paraguayan forests have not been studied extensively.