LB 11-110 - Prediction distribution modeling approach to identify conservation priority areas for three taxonomic groups in Sri Lanka

To secure the future of the biodiversity of threatened species, identification of the available hotspots of the species and implementation of conservation management practices are required to reduce species diversity loss and rapid extinction rate. The distribution patterns were determined for a selection of species belonging to different taxa. The selected threatened species for this study included 14 Skinks, 11 Geckos, and 64 Amphibians in Sri Lanka. To overcome the difficulties of delineating the distribution of each species using field data only, the MaxEnt software was used to develop Species Distribution Models using 21 environment parameters. Maps generated by the modeling exercise, identified areas of high diversity for each taxon. Areas of high diversity were then disaggregated according to the protected status by overlaying the current protected area layer of Sri Lanka 2020. Priority ranks were assigned for each protected area according to the prepared matrix considering the threatened category, distribution area, and number of sighted locations. According to the outputs generated, 91% of species were projected to be distributed in the wet zone, 42% were in the intermediate zone and only 18% of species were in the dry zone of Sri Lanka. A total footprint of 31,832 km2 was demarcated as the area of high diversity for the taxon groups and 57% (18,294 km2) of this area was located outside of protected areas. The Knuckles FR, Sinharaja MAB, and Peak Wilderness were ranked as the most prioritized conservation areas. Though all the species selected were identified as currently conserved within the protected areas, nearly 4,000 km2 of possibly conservable areas remain outside protected areas with high diversity. Without immediate conservation interventions, these species are facing the threat of rapid extinction. Also, this technique is recommended to evaluate biodiversity in successful conservation approaches by identifying prioritized areas where conservation measures are required.