PS 11-148 - Improving invasive plant abundance-based species distribution models through the integration of concepts and evidence from invasive plant ecology literature

Abstract: Invasive plant abundance-based species distribution models (SDMs) are powerful tools for researching and managing invasive plant populations. However, predictors commonly used to create invasive plant abundance SDMs often include only a subset of the factors that are ecologically important for predicting their abundance. To better integrate our ecological understanding of invasive plant abundance into SDMs, we reviewed relevant literature to identify and detail factors that influence invasive plant abundance, as well as explore how these factors are currently represented within invasive plant abundance SDMs. We find that certain abundance governing factors, such as environmental suitability, are ubiquitous amongst invasive plant abundance SDMs. Other factors, such as biotic resistance or propagule pressure, are less commonly represented. The inclusion of these under-represented abundance governing factors can often improve model performance but may be dependent on additional considerations such as model scale or study species. Barriers to including invasive plant abundance governing factors in SDMs are often due to data limitations or methodological uncertainty. Finally, we suggest future research directions, such as expanding observational datasets or improving our understanding of community level interactions, that would address certain barriers and improve our ability to include abundance governing factors in SDMs. By better integrating our ecological understanding of invasive plant abundance into SDMs, we can create more ecologically plausible models with improved performance that have greater applications for the research and management of invasive plants.