PS 41-141 - Anticipating Climate Transitions in Wyoming (WyACT). A Trans-disciplinary Approach for Addressing Climate-driven Changes to Water Availability in America's Headwaters Region

Abstract: Water resources in the Rocky Mountain region are under significant threat from climate change. A shift from snow- to rain-dominated precipitation over the mountains, higher rates of evaporation, and increasing inter-annual variability elevate risks to watershed and ecosystem functioning and diminish the quality of natural resources that underpin social and economic stability in the region. Our capacity to identify and quantify risks and predict societal consequences of shifting climate conditions in the nation’s critical headwater areas, like in Wyoming, are limited by uncertainties in how hydrological, ecological and sociological systems interact. Humans are central agents in watershed behavior but quantitative understanding of feedbacks between human actions and hydrological/ecological functioning in a warming climate is generally not available to decision makers. Our project quantifies the likely range of responses of streamflow, aquatic ecosystems, and vegetation to a changing climate in America’s key headwater region. The gap between scientific understanding and community responses addresses the very nature of how scientific research is conducted. Our project narrows this gap by adopting a trans-disciplinary framework of knowledge co-production that puts stakeholders at the center of the scientific enterprise. We will use this framework to improve representation of social, economic, ecological and hydrological interactions and processes in integrated models.