Symposium
Steve Railsback
Lang Railsback & Associates
Arcata, California, United States
Matthew McCary, PhD
Assistant Professor
Rice University, Texas, United States
To be relevant in the 21st century, ecology must predict responses to dramatic change and previously unexperienced conditions. These problems are too complex for either field studies alone or traditional models: predicting ecological response to novel conditions demands models that represent the key variables and mechanisms driving the real system. These problems also demand new ecological theory, especially for how organisms make adaptive decisions in complex situations. “Pattern-oriented modeling” provides strategies for using field observations to design models of appropriate complexity, develop and test their theory for individual behavior, and demonstrate model usefulness in decision-making. However, models for 21st century problems often are best supported by different kinds of empirical information than ecologists have traditionally collected, and different experimental designs. Demographic data are still useful but not sufficient for understanding population responses to complex stressors, while qualitative patterns in individual and population responses can be very informative. Traditional tests for “significant” differences among small numbers of discrete treatments are less useful than trends across broad ranges. Empirical experiments that seek precision by using unrealistically simplified conditions are less useful than those providing noisy data under realistic conditions.
This symposium will look at how tackling important but difficult management decisions changes the way ecologists do both modeling and empirical research, and how those changes can make us better scientists as well as more relevant to society. Bret Harvey will address 20+ years of field and laboratory studies to support models of how river management and hydropower affect fish populations. Two early-career ecologists will share their experience with 21st century problems: Matthew McCary will discuss modeling and empirical research to understand mechanisms driving plant invasions, and Cara Gallagher will summarize lessons from long-term studies and modeling of how offshore energy development affects porpoise populations. Volker Grimm will show how bee colony models, field studies, lab research, and citizen science are all being integrated to support pesticide regulation in European agricultural systems. Each presenter will illustrate how they used both models and field science to address socially important but difficult problems, how this integrated approach changed their empirical research, and what they learned about ecology that they would not have otherwise. Dr. Grimm will conclude with a synthesis of his extremely broad and long experience integrating empirical science and modeling to address difficult yet critical ecological problems.
Presenting Author: Matthew A. McCary, PhD – Rice University
Co-author: YuLing DeBellis – Rice University
Presenting Author: Bret C. Harvey, Pacific Southwest Research Station – US Forest Service
Presenting Author: Cara Gallagher, Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation – University of Potsdam
Co-author: Jacob Nabe-Nielsen – Aarhus University
Presenting Author: Volker Grimm, Ecological Modelling – Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research – UFZ