COS 170-4 - Impacts of Climate Change on Spatial Distribution and Future Habitat Suitability of African Rosewood (Pterocarpus erinaceus): a Globally Threatened Species.

Abstract: Climate change has been regarded as a major factor in the geographic distribution of plants which has often led to the loss of biodiversity in the forest ecosystem. Its impact and other anthropogenic activities on endangered plants have been a serious concern in forest ecology. Pterocarpus erinaceus is an endangered plant that may go extinct if timely measures are not adopted given its susceptibility to constant pressure.

This study used MaxEnt Model to predict the geographic distribution of P. erinaceus under current and future climatic scenarios of CNRM-CM5 and GFDL-CM3 for the years 2050 and 2070 under RCP 4.5. Niche predictions were based on 117 natural occurrences of the species and 8 bioclimatic variables. The model accuracy was evaluated using AUC values and TSS.
This study revealed that ≈9% of the Nigerian land cover was found to be a highly suitable niche under the current climatic scenario. Compared to the initial highly suitable niche, the species' niche under GFDL-CM3 and CNRM-CM5 2050 scenario increased to ≈22% and ≈25% respectively while a slightly higher niche expansion to ≈26% and ≈29% were recorded for GFDL-CM3 and CNRM-CM5 2070 scenarios respectively.
The result thus highlights a considerable opportunity in promoting all-inclusive silvicultural strategies for the extension and restoration of P. erinaceus in a bid to sustainably meet timber needs in Nigeria by providing evidence for establishing best management practices. Based on the temporal and spatial patterns, this study could provide information for bridging the conservation gap for threatened African Rosewood (P. erinaceus) in Nigeria.