USGS Research Ecologist USGA NECASC, United States
Abstract: Anthropogenic climate change is causing an increase in temperatures and precipitation in the northeastern United States, threatening the existence of vulnerable alpine habitats. The potential for ecotones to shift higher in elevation due to these increases could result in changes to or loss of alpine plant communities. The White Mountain fritillary (WMF) butterfly (Boloria chariclea montinus) is a subspecies of the Arctic fritillary (Boloria chariclea) that became isolated to the subalpine and alpine zone of the Presidential Range in the White Mountain National Forest in New Hampshire after post-glacial warming caused the loss of suitable habitats, which were once widespread. With temperatures increasing, now due to human-induced climate change, the WMF could be facing a new phase of habitat loss, but this time, there’s nowhere else for the species to go. The WMF is already pushed to the peak of present-day alpine habitats and has little to no room to move up in elevation. Because of this, along with their rarity and vulnerability, New Hampshire Fish and Game and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services are building a Species Status Assessment report in preparation for the subspecies to be reviewed for listing under the Endangered Species Act. This project aims to examine the longevity of the WMF using a species distribution model and to help inform understandings of their climate resiliency. Our approach to building the species distribution model was to use detection / non-detection data collected by New Hampshire Fish and game. We built an occupancy model using the package unmarked in R Studio and our species distribution model using dismo and enmSdmX packages. Our results show a decrease in suitable WMF habitat in the Presidential Range in New Hampshire. Based on these findings, we recommend increased protection of larval host plants and adult nectar sources, and to protect larval habitat from trampling by off-trail hikers. This project delivers maps that highlight suitable habitat that has shown persistence into the future given projected climate shifts and can be used to inform the conservation of the endemic WMF and surrounding subalpine and alpine ecosystem. In conclusion, this research is valuable for the protection of suitable alpine and subalpine habitats for the WMF and to protect the species and its ecosystem into the future, taking climate change factors into account.
