COS 209-4 - Climate Change Metrics for Canada’s Priority Places

Abstract: The Canadian federal government, in collaboration with the provinces and territories, agreed to the implementation of the Pan-Canadian Approach to Transforming Species at Risk Conservation in Canada in 2018. This approach shifts from a single-species approach to conservation to one that focuses on multiple species and ecosystems, concentrating conservation efforts on priority places, species, sectors and threats across Canada. A priority place is an area of high biodiversity value that is seen as a distinct place with a common ecological theme by the people who live and work there. To date, eleven priority places have been identified, each home to significant biodiversity, high concentrations of species at risk, and opportunities to advance conservation efforts. As climate change is a pervasive threat to Canadian ecosystems, understanding the climate change context of each priority place is critical to inform the selection of effective conservation actions. In this study, we examined and quantified the potential changes across all priority places using a suite of bioclimatic variables selected to represent changes in average climatic conditions and extreme events. To capture the multidimensionality of climate change, we included metrics of local climate change, such as climate dissimilarity, as well as metrics of regional climate change, such as climate velocity and changes to novel climate assemblages. All metrics were assessed across current baseline conditions (1991-2020) and potential changes to the 2050s (2041-2070). Potential future changes and metrics were assessed using downscaled ensemble averages across more than 15 global climate models for two emission scenarios representing moderate and high future global carbon emissions. In general, all priority places are projected to experience substantial change but the nature of change differs from place to place. Annually, priority places in western and eastern Canada may experience higher precipitation while two prairie region priority places may become hotter and drier. Seasonally, western priority places may have a hot and dry summer while in the east, summer precipitation might increase and the highest temperature increase will occur during winter. Priority places with more complex topography (e.g., many high mountains) may have greater capacity to function as climate refugia while assisted migration might be needed for species at risk with limited dispersal ability in fragmented habitats. The results of our analysis will be critical to informing existing decision-making processes, developing place specific risk assessments, and ensuring implementation of climate smart conservation actions.