COS 255-6 - Multi-decadal assessment of land cover shifts under climate change and urbanization in Central Asia

Thursday, August 10, 2023

11:15 AM – 11:30 AM PDT

Location: B118

Presenting Author(s)

WF

Wei Fang

Assistant Professor
Pace University - NYC
New York, New York, United States

Coauthor(s)

SS

Sakshi Saraf

University of South Dakota, United States
VK

Venkatesh Kolluru

University of South Dakota, United States
RJ

Ranjeet John

Assistant Professor
University of South Dakota, United States
MU

Maxine Uebelacker

Pace University - NYC, United States
JC

Jiquan Chen

Prof
Michigan State University
East Lansing, Michigan, United States
RK

Rashid Kulmatov

Professor
National University of Uzbekistan Tashkent, Uzbekistan
AP

Alim Pulatov

Professor
Tashkent Institute of Irrigation and Agricultural Mechanization Engineer
Tashkent, Uzbekistan
MK

Maira Kussainova

Professor
Kazakh National Agrarian Research University
Almaty, Almaty, Kazakhstan
KK

Kamilya Kelgenbaeva

Deputy Director of Science
International University of Kyrgyzstan
Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
SM

Saltanat Mambetova

Assistant Professor
University of Central Asia
Khorog, Tajikistan

Abstract: Central Asia, comprising of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, is an arid and semi-arid region of ecological fragility and cultural significance. These countries have experienced socio-ecological, environmental and institutional shifts, and are highly vulnerable to climate change and population growth. However, to our knowledge, studies are lacking on the relative impacts and their joint interactions of climate and socio-economic drivers on vegetation structure and function in the region. In this study, we used structural equation modeling (SEM) to partition the direct and indirect causal relations between climatic and anthropogenic drivers and ecosystem structure and function for each of seven vegetation types (forests, shrublands, savannas/open woodlands, grasslands, permanent wetlands, croplands, and built-up area) based on MODIS landcover product (with 500 m resolution) during 2001-2020. Ecosystem structure and function were represented by MODIS leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) products. Over the past 20 years, Central Asia lost 4.8% of forests, 1.3% of grasslands, 10.5% of croplands, while gained 30.8% shrublands, 50.9% open woodland, 11.6% wetlands, 2.2% built-up area. Overall vegetation types shifted from drought vulnerable ones like forests to drought resilient ones like shrublands and open woodlands. Copernicus Annual 300 m Land Cover data supported similar results. The study will not only shed new light on shifts of land cover and ecosystem services under climate change and urbanization, but also provide guidance to local policy makers and resource managers.