COS 297-4 - Fine Scale Habitat Suitability Modeling of Northern red muntjac (Muntiacus vaginalis (Boddaert, 1785)) in the Chitwan Annapurna Landscape, Nepal

Abstract: Factors associated with the habitat suitability of northern red muntjac (Muntiacus vaginalis), especially outside protected areas in the human-dominated landscape are still lacking. Fine-scale environmental variables can influence the habitat suitability of the animals. The goals of this study are to explore the different eco-geographic fine-scale variables for the distribution of the northern red muntjac, and predict suitable habitats using the maximum entropy (Maxent) model in the Chitwan Annapurna Landscape (CHAL). Our study area connects two biologically significant protected areas Chitwan National Park, a world heritage site in the south, and Annapurna Conservation Area, the largest protected area of Nepal. The presence points of the northern red muntjac (n = 265) were collected between 2018 to 2021 using 150 transects of various lengths in four blocks. Density-based occurrence points rarify and performance-based variable selection was applied to improve the output of the model. The model was evaluated based on the area under the curve (AUC) value of operator characteristic (ROC) and analyzed on the basis of the response curve, the relative importance of variables, the Jackknife test, and the suitability map. Here, we show the habitat suitability model was statistically satisfactory (mean AUC > 0.75). The distance to the nearest cropland, Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) and distance to developed and settlement areas were the top three important variables that explained the suitability of Northern red muntjac. The species distribution model predicted 6.52% highly suitable and 23.77% suitable area for northern red muntjac. In conclusion, this study found that the central part of Chitwan Annapurna Landscape is important for the muntjac and provides a possible alternative habitat for northern red muntjac along with other wild animals outside the protected areas. Fine-scale habitat suitability modeling is one of the best methods that provide the habitat conditions for the animals. Hence, our research suggests that human-dominated landscapes should be prioritized in management plans for the conservation of muntjac.