COS 43-6 - CANCELLED - If you build it, will they come? Examining oyster recovery scenarios in Apalachicola Bay, Florida

Abstract: In 2012, the once healthy Apalachicola Bay oyster fishery experienced total collapse due to a multitude of factors. High salinity over a period of several years increased oyster predator and parasite populations, and a hurricane in 2012 buried remaining oyster reefs in sediment. Post-hurricane, the oyster reefs didn't recover. Here, we examine restoration scenarios to investigate the driving factors preventing oyster recovery. Using a population model parameterized based on local oyster demographic rates, we compare the output of different restoration scenarios to determine likely outcomes. We simulate adding extensive amounts of shell (reef) under varying environmental scenarios, including continued high salinity versus "normal" salinity, and also investigate if the timing/duration of added shell affects population recovery outcomes. Preliminary results suggest continued high salinity, not lack of reef, is the primary factor preventing recovery, and frequent, large, deposits of shell would be required to regrow the population and combat the effects of high salinity. These results will be communicated to stakeholders to ecologically and financially optimize recovery efforts in Apalachicola Bay.