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Contributed Talk

Session: : Agriculture 3

COS 47-4 - The influence of projected agricultural retirement and land use conversion on habitat fragmentation and landscape connectivity

Tuesday, August 8, 2023
8:45 AM – 9:00 AM PDT
Location: B110
Abstract: Habitat loss due to agriculture is a primary driver of biodiversity loss at local, regional and global scales. Many studies have focused on the conversion of natural lands to agriculture and the generally negative effect it has on habitat fragmentation. However, the conversion from agricultural land back to natural vegetation — referred to here as agricultural land retirement — can also affect habitat quality and fragmentation as retired lands revegetate. Yet, the potential of agricultural land retirement to benefit biodiversity through increased habitat and reduced fragmentation remains poorly understood. Here we use projections of land use change in the Southeastern US from 1990 to 2050 to understand 1) where agriculture is projected to change under different climate scenarios, 2) whether and where future agricultural land needs could be met by recultivating land that was previously agriculture and 3) how these changes impact landscape fragmentation and connectivity. We used USGS FOREcasting SCEnarios of Land-use Change (FORE-SCE) data to identify future agricultural retirement and conversion under different Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) climate change scenarios. We measure retirement as a change in land cover type from agricultural to natural that occurs between 1990 and 2050, and we measure conversion as a similar change from natural to agricultural land cover. Using these future land cover projections, we compare conversion and retirement forecasts within similar growing regions. We also calculate landscape fragmentation metrics including cohesion, edge density, and core area using R package landscapemetrics. We find that land converted to agriculture is more abundant than retired land under most future scenarios, though there are substantial differences across subregions and future SRES scenarios. Additionally, when retired agriculture is allowed to revegetate instead of being recultivated, we find that landscape metrics like cohesion, core area, edge density, and shape index indicate less fragmentation of natural land. Further, the negative effect of retirement on fragmentation is greater for the more environmentally focused scenario (B2) compared to the rapid economic growth scenario (A1) by 77.2%. Understanding the effect of agricultural land retirement and recultivation on habitat fragmentation and connectivity can inform management decisions that balance meeting future agricultural demands with conserving ecosystems and biodiversity.