SYMP 22-3 - Impact of renewable energy expansion on biodiversity: an application of species distribution modeling

Despite improved tools for planning the siting and buildout of renewable energy (RE), climate change-induced range shifts will exacerbate conflicts between RE and biodiversity. Many ecologically suitable locations (e.g., with existing infrastructure) also pose equity concerns for disadvantaged communities (DACs). While near-term opportunities to mitigate conflicts between RE, biodiversity, and environmental justice are promising, range shift uncertainty makes projecting long-term RE buildout impacts difficult. To overcome this, we apply species distribution modeling (SDM) under changing climate scenarios to project long-term biodiversity impacts in the US from RE expansion. Specifically, we apply SDM with current and future (2041-60) climate change projections to model overlap between RE development and range shifts of species of concern, kit fox (Vulpes macrotis), Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) and golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos). We used AdaptWest bioclimatic data layers and Ensemble-13 future projection for robust SDM calibration and selection based on model significance and performance. The expansion of RE in the form of wind and solar farms could potentially impact the habitat of these species in several ways. One of the main concerns is habitat loss due to the construction of wind and solar farms and the associated infrastructure, such as access roads, transmission lines, and substations. Our results show that changes in climate will decrease the suitable habitat for these species in the future. For example, 49.8 km2 of area suitable for current and future kit fox habitats overlaps with operating solar farm footprints in California. By 2050, we project that 1,040.8 km2 will overlap with future suitable kit fox habitats under the RE+ buildout scenario of the Net-Zero America Project (NZAP). We then incorporate DAC locations in California to demonstrate how these growth scenarios change when also seeking to mitigate cumulative impacts to DACs. The planning and design of RE buildout scenarios that consider species’ habitat needs and equity for DACs can balance the benefits of RE with wildlife conservation and environmental justice aims. Integrating future RE scenarios with species range shift maps and localized development can help inform decision outcomes that align goals addressing climate change, community wellbeing, and biodiversity conservation.