OOS 24 - Ecological Forecasting: Applications, Discoveries, and Opportunities

Organizer(s)

• MD

  Michael Dietze

  Department of Earth and Environment
  Boston University
  Boston, Massachusetts, United States

Co-Organizer(s)

• ML

  Mary Lofton

  postdoctoral research associate
  Virginia Tech, United States
• JB

  Jessica Burnett

  NASA, United States

Ecological forecasting supports new 21st century approaches to research, conservation, and management that are critical at a time of increasing variability and high uncertainty in many ecosystems. We live in a time dominated by transient dynamics and forecasts play an increasingly important role in anticipating change. Putting ecological forecasts into practice, which involves both changes in approach and mindset, is a critical part of facing the “disciplinary reckoning” that requires ecology to become a more predictive science. As such, ecological forecasting epitomizes this year’s theme, “ESA for all ecologists,” with its focus on projects that implement ecological science, across-sector collaboration, making ecology more relevant to decision making, and disseminating ecological research to those who need it most. Recent advances in community building, computational capacities, sensor technologies, and statistical/data science techniques are making near real-time ecology a reality. Consequently, the practice of ecological forecasting, i.e., the process of predicting the future states of ecological systems and ecological services with fully specified uncertainties, is an area of high interest and rapid growth in ecology that was barely possible a generation ago.

This session brings together ecologists from a diversity of study systems to highlight cutting-edge examples of near-term ecological forecasting that span ecosystem boundaries, time scales, and basic/applied applications. With the rapid growth of forecasting comes a need to share information about advances in ecological theory (e.g., around predictability and transferability), new modeling approaches, best practices, and more. This session highlights a diverse set of speakers from across a range of career stages, races, nationalities, and institutions tackling ecological forecasting problems that directly provide data and models to inform environmental decision-makers.

This session is organized by the Ecological Forecasting Initiative (EFI), a grassroots consortium that brings together scientists, managers, and policymakers developing near-term (daily to decadal) ecological forecasts. EFI’s overarching goal - to advance ecological forecasting within the ecology research community - is motivated by the goal to improve our ability to respond to complex environmental challenges by providing environmental decision-makers with the best available science in hand.

Presentations:

• 1:30 PM – 1:45 PM PDT

  Forecasting desert rodent population dynamics in a changing climate
  

  Presenting Author: Juniper Simonis – DAPPER Stats

  Co-author: S. K. Morgan Ernest – University Of Florida

  Co-author: Ethan P. White, PhD – University of Florida
• 1:45 PM – 2:00 PM PDT

  Spatial ecological forecasting: applications to marine fish range dynamics
  

  Presenting Author: Alexa Fredston – UC Santa Cruz

  Co-author: Daniel Ovando – Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission

  Co-author: James Thorson – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

  Co-author: Malin L. Pinsky – Rutgers University
• 2:00 PM – 2:15 PM PDT

  Anticipating the timing and magnitude of cyanotoxin production by benthic cyanobacteria in rivers
  

  Presenting Author: Joanna R. Blaszczak – University of Nevada Reno

  Co-author: Jordan Zabrecky – University of Nevada Reno

  Co-author: Meaghan Hickey – University of nevada Reno

  Co-author: Rosalina Stancheva – California State University San Marcos

  Co-author: Rich Fadness – California North Coast Regional Water Quality Control Board

  Co-author: Robert K. Shriver – University of Nevada, Reno

  Co-author: Laurel Genzoli – University of Montana - Flathead Lake Biological Station

  Co-author: Grant Johnson – Karuk Tribe Water Quality Program Manager
• 2:15 PM – 2:30 PM PDT

  Predicting host-parasite dynamics after resource pulses: From host physiology to community infection risk
  

  Presenting Author: Lynda Bradley – Emory

  Co-author: Rachel Hartman – Emory University

  Co-author: Maggie Weber – Yale University

  Co-author: Sharon Miao – Emory University

  Co-author: Megan Zhang – Emory University

  Co-author: David J. Civitello, PhD – Emory University
• 2:30 PM – 2:45 PM PDT

  Reducing model uncertainty of the permafrost carbon climate feedback through parameter optimization
  

  Presenting Author: Helene Genet – U Alaska, Fairbanks
• 2:45 PM – 3:00 PM PDT

  Data integration for ecological forecasting: Elevational and physiological offsets improve species distribution models
  

  Presenting Author: Diego Ellis-Soto – Yale University

  Co-author: Jeremy M. Cohen – Yale University

  Co-author: Jussi Mäkinen – University of Helsinki

  Co-author: Shubhi Sharma – Yale University - New Haven, CT

  Co-author: Brooke Bodensteiner – Yale University

  Co-author: Julia Laterza Barbosa – Yale University