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Inspire Session

Session: : 21st-century Trajectories of Big Sagebrush Plant Communities

INS 12-3 - How will climate change alter the extent of core sagebrush areas?

Wednesday, August 9, 2023
1:30 PM – 3:00 PM PDT
Location: 253

    Presenting Author(s)

  • MH

    Martin Holdrege

    Postdoctoral Researcher
    USGS Southwest Biological Science Center, United States

    • Co-author(s)

  • WL

    William K. Lauenroth, PhD

    Professor
    Yale School of the Environment, Connecticut, United States

  • KD

    Kevin E. Doherty

    Ecologist
    US Fish and Wildlife Service, United States

  • JB

    John B. Bradford

    Research Ecologist
    USGS Southwest Biological Science Center, Arizona, United States

  • KP

    Kyle A. Palmquist

    Assistant Professor
    Marshall University
    Huntington, West Virginia, United States

  • DS

    Daniel R. Schlaepfer

    USGS Southwest Biological Science Center / Northern Arizona University
    Flagstaff, Arizona, United States

Components of core big sagebrush habitats include big sagebrush, perennial grasses and forbs, and limited or no invasive annual grasses. Here we consider how climate change and associated climate-vegetation-fire interactions may affect these plant functional types and thereby the future extent of core sagebrush habitats. Results from an individual plant-based simulation model, coupled with remotely sensed estimates of current sagebrush habitat quality, suggest reductions in habitat quality may occur in currently hot and dry regions with positive responses more likely in cool and wet regions. However, considerable uncertainty remains, including varying responses across climate scenarios.