INS 2-1 - An update on Southwestern North America's Turn-of-the-21st-Century megadrought

“Megadrought” generally refers to a multi-decade period in which average warm-season soil moisture is among the driest in the past millennium or more. Using tree-ring records and modern climate observations, I find that mean 2000–2022 summer soil moisture across Southwestern North America (SWNA) was likely drier than in any other 23-year period in >1200 years. Despite the wet winter of 2023, SWNA’s megadrought is probably still ongoing; the megadroughts of last millennium also had occasional wet years. In this talk I will present an update on the status, causes, and range of potential future trajectories of SWNA’s Turn-of-the-21st-Century megadrought.