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Inspire Session

Session: : Rangelands in the Age of Megadroughts: Ecology, Livestock, and Landscapes

INS 2-2 - Climate change and ecological drought in rangelands of the American West

Monday, August 7, 2023

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM PDT

Location: 253

Presenting Author(s)

JB

John B. Bradford

Research Ecologist
USGS Southwest Biological Science Center, Arizona, United States

Co-author(s)

DS

Daniel R. Schlaepfer

USGS Southwest Biological Science Center / Northern Arizona University
Flagstaff, Arizona, United States
JC

Jeanne C. Chambers, PhD

Senior Scientist Emeritus
USDA-ARS
Reno, Nevada, United States
JB

Jessi L. Brown

USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station
DB

David I. Board, MS

Ecologist/Data Analyst
USDA Forest Service, RMRS
Reno, Nevada, United States
BH

Brice Hanberry

USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station
AU

Alexandra K. Urza

USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station
MC

Michele R. Crist

BLM National Interagency Fire Center

Ecological drought shapes dryland vegetation dynamics. Here, we estimate future changes in hot-dry conditions for western U.S. drylands. Despite modestly increasing precipitation and enhanced plant water-use efficiency (higher CO2), future increases in atmospheric demand for moisture exceed changes in soil moisture, exacerbating ecological drought stress. Dry degree days increase, especially the southern Great Basin. Dry soil interval duration increases in many areas, but decreases in the southwest. Seasonal drought stress timing may shift toward cool seasons in northern regions, and toward warm seasons in the south. These results clarify the potential consequences of climate change for dryland resistance and resilience.