Arkansas Tech University Russellville, Arkansas, United States
Abstract: The Maple-leaf oak, Quercus acerifolia (E.J.Palmer) Stoynoff & Hess, is listed as Critically Imperiled by the State of Arkansas and considered endangered in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Oak Species. It is endemic to the interior highlands of the Ouachita Mountains in west-central Arkansas, where it is reported to occur in only four isolated locations. No specific research exists regarding predicted climate change impacts on the Q. acerifolia, but given its small range and habitat specificity, such climate change-driven impacts will likely pose significant risks to remaining populations. We used an ensemble species distribution modeling approach to predict suitable habitat areas for Q. acerifolia within its native range. We investigate how future changes in climate may impact habitat suitability. Precipitation-related variables (precipitation of wettest month and precipitation seasonality) contributed roughly45% to the model prediction, followed by elevation (23%) and slope (10%). Currently, the estimated area of suitable habitat area for Q. acerifolia is 2523 km2. By 2050, the model predicts a suitable habitat area of 749 km2, a 70% reduction from the current habitat extent. By 2100, the model predicts a suitable habitat of only 285 km2 or an 89% loss of present suitable habitat. The model also predicted climatically suitable habitat area in 20 counties (14 in Arkansas and six in Oklahoma), including the currently known four locations in Arkansas. Although Q. acerifolia is rare and is at risk of extinction due to potential climate-change driven habitat reduction, the SDM ensemble identified several potentially new areas of habitat for the species. New habitat information can be used to guide efforts to identify new locations where Q. acerifolia populations might exist or be reintroduced, leading to enhanced and targeted efforts for long-term management, conservation, and restoration of this critically-imperiled species.
